Machine learning and comorbidity network analysis for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a city in Southern Brazil.

The large amount of data generated during the COVID-19 pandemic requires advanced tools for the long-term prediction of risk factors associated with COVID-19 mortality with higher accuracy. Machine learning (ML) methods directly address this topic and are essential tools to guide public health interventions. Here, we used ML to investigate the importance of demographic and clinical variables on COVID-19 mortality. We also analyzed how comorbidity networks are structured according to age groups. We conducted a retrospective study of COVID-19 mortality with hospitalized patients from Londrina, Parana, Brazil, registered in the database for severe acute respiratory infections (SIVEP-Gripe), from January 2021 to February 2022. We tested four ML models to predict the COVID-19 outcome: Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and XGBoost. We also constructed a comorbidity network to investigate the impact of co-occurring comorbidities on COVID-19 mortality. Our study comprised 8358 hospitalized patients, of whom 2792 (33.40%) died. The XGBoost model achieved excellent performance (ROC-AUC = 0.90). Both permutation method and SHAP values highlighted the importance of age, ventilatory support status, and intensive care unit admission as key features in predicting COVID-19 outcomes. The comorbidity networks for old deceased patients are denser than those for young patients. In addition, the co-occurrence of heart disease and diabetes may be the most important combination to predict COVID-19 mortality, regardless of age and sex. This work presents a valuable combination of machine learning and comorbidity network analysis to predict COVID-19 outcomes. Reliable evidence on this topic is crucial for guiding the post-pandemic response and assisting in COVID-19 care planning and provision.

The Pitfalls of Mining for QuantiFERON Gold in Severely Ill Patients With COVID-19.

Objective: To assess the proportion of indeterminate QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QFT-Plus) results in patients admitted for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia and evaluate the factors associated with indeterminate QFT-Plus results. Patients and Methods: Data on COVID-19 admissions at Mayo Clinic in Florida were extracted between October 13, 2020, and September 20, 2021, and data from a prepandemic cohort were extracted between October 13, 2018, and September 20, 2019. A secondary analysis of the COVID-19 cohort was performed using gradient boosting modeling to generate variable importance and SHapley Additive exPlanations plots. Results: Our findings demonstrated more indeterminate QFT-Plus test results in patients hospitalized for severe COVID-19 infection than in patients without COVID-19 (139 of 495, 28.1%). The factors associated with indeterminate QFT-Plus test results included elevated levels of C-reactive protein, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase and interleukin-6 and included lower levels of leukocyte, lymphocyte, and platelet counts. Conclusion: The patients with severe COVID-19 had a higher likelihood of indeterminate QFT-Plus results, which were associated with elevated levels of inflammatory markers consistent with severe infection. Interferon-gamma release assay screening tests are likely confounded by COVID-19 infection itself, limiting the screening ability for latent tuberculosis infection reactivation. Indeterminate QFT-Plus results may also require follow-up QFT-Plus testing after patient recovery from COVID-19, increasing the cost and complexity of medical decision making and management. Additional risk assessments may be needed in this patient population for screening for latent tuberculosis infection in patients with severe COVID-19.

Eleven routine clinical features predict COVID-19 severity uncovered by machine learning of longitudinal measurements.

Severity prediction of COVID-19 remains one of the major clinical challenges for the ongoing pandemic. Here, we have recruited a 144 COVID-19 patient cohort, resulting in a data matrix containing 3,065 readings for 124 types of measurements over 52 days. A machine learning model was established to predict the disease progression based on the cohort consisting of training, validation, and internal test sets. A panel of eleven routine clinical factors constructed a classifier for COVID-19 severity prediction, achieving accuracy of over 98% in the discovery set. Validation of the model in an independent cohort containing 25 patients achieved accuracy of 80%. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 0.70, 0.99, 0.93, and 0.93, respectively. Our model captured predictive dynamics of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and creatine kinase (CK) while their levels were in the normal range. This model is accessible at https://www.guomics.com/covidAI/ for research purpose.

Personalized Prediction of Hospital Mortality in COVID-19-Positive Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To develop predictive models for in-hospital mortality and length of stay (LOS) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-positive patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a multicenter retrospective cohort study of hospitalized COVID-19-positive patients. A total of 764 patients admitted to 14 different hospitals within the Cleveland Clinic from March 9, 2020, to May 20, 2020, who had reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction-proven coronavirus infection were included. We used LightGBM, a machine learning algorithm, to predict in-hospital mortality at different time points (after 7, 14, and 30 days of hospitalization) and in-hospital LOS. Our final cohort was composed of 764 patients admitted to 14 different hospitals within our system. RESULTS: The median LOS was 5 (range, 1-44) days for patients admitted to the regular nursing floor and 10 (range, 1-38) days for patients admitted to the intensive care unit. Patients who died during hospitalization were older, initially admitted to the intensive care unit, and more likely to be white and have worse organ dysfunction compared with patients who survived their hospitalization. Using the 10 most important variables only, the final model's area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.86 for 7-day, 0.88 for 14-day, and 0.85 for 30-day mortality in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: We developed a decision tool that can provide explainable and patient-specific prediction of in-hospital mortality and LOS for COVID-19-positive patients. The model can aid health care systems in bed allocation and distribution of vital resources.